O’Neil Oscarology 2010: Predicting the Winners
I follow the Oscars to a borderline unhealthy degree, so much so that it is certain I know more about the behind-the-scenes bullshit that’s going on more than most people my age. As you’ll learn in my next column for the Keene State College newspaper The Equinox, (published Thursdays at noon, available online at a soon-to-be beautifully refurbished website www.keeneequinox.com – that’s my plug) I am both equally obsessed and angry with the Oscars, the latter being a slowly developed feeling ever since they criminally put the joke on us and shut “The Dark Knight” out of Best Picture last year. Still, I remain enamored. Typically, I suck hard at predicting the eventual winners (though last year I think I went 21/24 or something!). I have my good moments, but for as much as I know how and why a film CAN win in a category, the skill to get inside the heads of those old geezers heads in the Academy has been consistently impossible and never rewarding. They’re the Republican party of the film industry. How well you kiss their ass is priority numero uno.
Anyway, I’ll get on with this, shall I?
BEST PICTURE:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Baseterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a true race on our hands. Not since The Departed nabbed the trophy in ‘06 has the predicting been so hard to do. “No Country for Old Men” and “Slumdog Millionare” were obvious recipients, but this year there’s a problem: 10 nominees. That means a preferential balloting system, where Best Picture is chosen by a majority of overall support instead of which movie gets the most #1 votes. Before, members just mark which film out of the five they want to win on the ballot. Now, they have to rank their preference 1-10 and through ten rounds, the film with the most overall support (as in, a movie with many not as many #1 votes could still win if they boast tons of #2’s and #3’s) wins the prize.
“The Hurt Locker” is clearly the early favorite after winning individual and vital guild awards from the directors, producers and writers. It’s critically acclaimed, relevant and of its time. “Avatar” is…well, what isn’t “Avatar?” Only three can win this thing: “Locker,” “Avatar,” or “Basterds.” We’re talking full industry support here, so it only makes sense the important Iraq War drama, Quentin Tarantino’s most accomplished movie since “Pulp Fiction” and the highest grossing movie of all time battle it out. I wouldn’t be surprised if “Basterds” won (well, actually I would) because it has that core fan base within the Academy who have major support for Tarantino, a now-seasoned veteran. It’s been 16 years since he last ran the circuit and finally rewarding him seems like the right thing to do. But c’mon now, this is David vs. Goliath. Everyone is saying “The Hurt Locker” for the win, but I’m going to go rogue and pick “Avatar,” for three reasons. 1) It has the its-too-big-to-deny/reestablishment of the wonder of movies thing going on 2) It represents the popular vote in an era the Academy is drastically out of touch with 3) Voting for the “The Hurt Locker” is just too boring. Seriously. “Locker” is probably going to win but if “Avatar” swoops in like a Na’Vi on a banshee for the win, I can be one of the five individuals worldwide who would’ve guessed right. I’m not in this for the prediction action anymore, only fun. Plus, “Avatar” was the most entertaining experience I’ve ever had at the movies. I’m fully preparing to be wrong here.
WILL/SHOULD WIN: “Avatar”
ALTERNATE: “The Hurt Locker”
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron – “Avatar”
Lee Daniels – “Precious”
Jason Reitman – “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino - “Inglorious Basterds”
Bigelow has this in the bag. How irresistible is this woman? Well for one, she would be the first woman in the history of the Oscars to win Best Director. There have been three others but other works were too overshadowing. She also directed the frontrunner for Best Picture and really, her movie is expertly made. It really is. “The Hurt Locker” is a movie where the direction draws attention to itself, but in a great way. Daniels and Reitman are there for the sauce. Neither has a chance. Tarantino suffers from being so awesome at precisely the wrong time. But he should’ve won for “Pulp Fiction” anyway. The chance to properly reward him for the right film is gone for good. Cameron is the only one to upset. Why? Because he’s James fucking Cameron. the former King of the World and now, after the intergalactic atomic bomb that was “Avatar,” King of the Universe. No other filmmaker can do what Cameron does.
SHOULD WIN: Cameron, but I’d be just fine with Bigelow taking it from her ex-husband, both for the post-nuptial irony and because of her kick-ass vision.
WILL WIN: Bigelow.
BEST ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges – “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney – “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth – “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman – “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner – “The Hurt Locker”
The most boring Best Actor race in years. Bridges has been dominating for his understated performance and I don’t see him losing here. He would be 0/5 if he lost this time and that’s too heartbreaking for an actor who’s been in the business for so long.
SHOULD WIN: Firth. It’s a role of a lifetime for Firth, playing a gay college professor morning the loss of his lover. Just as understated as Bridges but more emotionally complex.
WILL WIN: Bridges.
BEST ACTRESS:
Sandra Bullock – “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren - “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan – “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe – “Precious”
Meryl Streep – “Julie and Julia”
First Meryl got the heat. Then Sandra stole it away. And I have no idea why. I haven’t seen “The Blind Side” but she doesn’t seem like too much of a firecracker. Mulligan is probably most deserving, but I haven’t seen her film either. Mirren literally just won. Sidibe does rock as Precious, but no one shows the rest how its down as effortlessly as Streep. She hasn’t won in 28 years. 16 noms, 2 wins, yes, but this is the greatest living actress we’re talking about.
WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock for completely the wrong reasons.
SHOULD WIN: Streep but mostly because Mulligan remains a mystery.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon – “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson – “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer – “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci - “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz – “Inglorious Basterds”
Poor Plummer. He’s the newest recipient of the Ancient Actor To Finally Get An Oscar Nom award. And world peace will come before he wins this. Damon and Tucci the same. Harrelson got some traction but not nearly enough as the Waltz avalanche. And understandably. Waltz’s Nazi, Hans Landa, is soon-to-be the hat trick in the Academy’s arsenal to award a villainous role an Oscar. Bardem (woot!) won in ‘08. Ledger (triple woot!) won in ‘09. Waltz is pretty much indestructible. The deed is done.
WILL / SHOULD WIN: Waltz. I mean, have you seeeeeen the performance?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – “Nine”
Vera Farmiga – “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal – “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick – “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique – “Precious”
No race whatsoever. If you want to know why, just watch “Precious.”
WILL / SHOULD WIN: Mo’Nique in a landslide.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up
I’d be quick to say Tarantino for “Basterds” but if the Academy is horny for “The Hurt Locker,” forget it. I’m still going with Tarantino because, you know, he’s Quentin Tarantino, screenwriting prime rib. And because (holy mackerel!) his script is better, if that still means something.
WILL / SHOULD WIN: Tarantino. They’ll want to reward “Basterds” somewhere and if it has enough of a following, Waltz’s win won’t be enough.
SPOILER (it would be a very minor one): Mark Boal, “The Hurt Locker.” The Academy loves complementing a Best Picture win with a worthy screenplay.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9
An Education
In The Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
Man, this is a boring category. “Precious” love so far seems to end with Mo’Nique and I see that happening at the Oscars. The top three made it for the glory of the nomination. “Up in the Air” isn’t winning everything else and going with what little riches “Inglorious Basterds” will be ravished with, “Up in the Air”’s pat on the back will be its screenplay. It’s won everywhere prior to Oscar and there’s no reason it won’t continue.
And if you haven’t stopped reading yet, I have the rest, but will hold the witty commentary:
CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Avatar”
SPOILER: “The Hurt Locker”
ART DIRECTION
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Avatar”
COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Young Victoria”
SHOULD WIN: “Nine”
FILM EDITING
WILL WIN: This one almost always goes with Best Picture, so by default I say “Avatar.” But if it’s “Locker”’s night, so be it.
SHOULD WIN: Tie. “Locker” / “Avatar”
MAKEUP
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Star Trek”
SOUND MIXING / EDITING
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Avatar.” I’m not gonna bother splitting these two up a) because the same film is winning both and b) you couldn’t care less.
VISUAL F/X
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Avatar.” DUH.
ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “Up.”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “The Cove.”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL / SHOULD WIN: “The White Ribbon.”
(Note: I don’t do Documentary or Animated Shorts because unlike everything else, I can’t even guess never mind vest any interest.)
So there you have it, folks. Chances are I’m mostly wrong as usual, but I swear to God, if “Avatar” takes Best Picture I’ll start betting real money starting next year. Happy watching!
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